The Heinberg Pulse Project

Some of your volunteer time would be much appreciated!

[Editor’s note: Richard Heinberg is not currently involved in this Project, and the naming of the ‘Heinberg Pulse’ is rather like the naming of the Jevons Paradox. It’s named after a person who himself did not name it. The namer of the Heinberg Pulse did not consult with Richard Heinberg in this naming.]

---

I almost called this the Heinberg Pulse Collaborative Research & Action Project, displayed as an acronym, would be HP-CRAP.

Dodged a bullet there! 

The idea is this:

Richard Heinberg recently published an article in Resilience titled Is the Energy Transition Taking Off--or hitting a wall? In this article, Heinberg said something which ought to gain the attention of everyone with an interest in climate and ecological action. And he's speaking as one of the world's most recognized voices in the relation of energy, economy and ecology, and as author of numerous books on these topics.

Here's what he said.:

"There’s one other hurdle to addressing climate change that goes almost entirely unnoticed. Most cost estimates for the transition are in terms of money. What about the energy costs? It will take a tremendous amount of energy to mine materials; transport and transform them through industrial processes like smelting; turn them into solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, vehicles, infrastructure, and industrial machinery; install all of the above, and do this at a sufficient scale to replace our current fossil-fuel-based industrial system. In the early stages of the process, this energy will have to come mostly from fossil fuels, since they supply about 83 percent of current global energy. The result will surely be a pulse of emissions; however, as far as I know, nobody has tried to calculate its magnitude."

When Heinberg says "...as far as a know, nobody has tried to calculate its magnitude," he's speaking as Senior Fellow and Board Secretary of Post Carbon Institute. For several decades, Heinberg has been at or near the center of those networks of world-class experts in the field of energy in relation to economy and ecology (including climate). If there is reliable data which calculates the magnitude of what I'm wanting to call "the Heinberg Pulse," he could readily find it. He has plenty of access.

I'm almost certain that Heinberg is correct in his assumption that there would be such a pulse. You see, under the narrative of the popular version of "energy transition," the world would have to meet its current energy "needs" while also using a very significantly increased amount of energy to support the additional mining, smelting, manufacturing, transport and installation of a rapidly growing energy transition infrastructure and devices. These would include photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, electric cars, and so on. The increase in energy use during such a rapid 'pulse' (expansion) of such infrastructure and devices would be considerable. And, as Heinberg rightly stated, because 83% of current world energy use is fossil fuel sourced energy, this increase in world energy use would -- in the near term (over the next decade, at least!) -- result in an increase in fossil fuel consumption.

But it is this crucial decade (over the next ten years) in which climate scientists warn we must begin to rather dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  So the entire popular narrative on "energy transition" appears to be fundamentally flawed, since that narrative says nothing whatsoever about voluntary energy descent. Again, the popular narrative on energy transition proposes to fully replace fossil fuel consumption with 'renewable energy' without any reduction in global energy use. And this cannot possibly be compatible with greenhouse gas emissions reductions -- and certainly not the extent of such reductions as scientists say are necessary.

So let us cut the CRAP and just call this The Heinberg Pulse Project. And I need your help with it.

No, let me put that differently. I don't aim for this to be my project. I don't want to be at the center of it, but would love to share a central role in it with some others who are working together on the Project as full collaborators.

The research aspect of the Heinberg Pulse Project (HPP) will center on learning everything we can learn about what Heinberg called the "energy costs" of "energy transition".  There may be a number of other important lacunae in our knowledge which we will also want to address, but this will be the central, core question. How Big A Pulse? The 'magnitude', to use Heinberg's own term. 

The action component of HPP will center on informing as many people as possible about the magnitude of this 'pulse,' using whatever means of doing so we can agree to collaborate upon.

As it seems to me at the moment, the world has largely embraced a false narrative with regard to "energy transition," and this false narrative is likely to result in the opposite consequences as that which we are told energy transition is supposed to produce. 

The Heinberg Pulse Project will ...

• identify subject matter experts around the world who may have knowledge or insight about the Heinberg Pulse

• contact these people and ask for their help determining the 'magnitude' of the pulse

• encourage courage -- for to be vocal about something with such profound consequences can be intimidating, at the very least

• follow the saliencies and incipiencies of our discovery process where it leads

• inform the general public of our findings, as best we can

• explore other narratives of energy transition which may be more honest and more realistic 

This is an all volunteer Project. Will you help it to emerge and grow?  You can contribute in any way, and to any degree, which feels comfortable for you. 

To offer your volunteer assistance to the Project, please contact James at jrivermartin at gmail dot com … and please put the words “Heinberg Pulse Project” in the subject line.