“That's great! It starts with an earthquake Birds and snakes, an aeroplane and Lenny Bruce is not afraid.” — R.E.M., It's The End Of The World As We Know It I spent a fair portion of my day yesterday listening to and reading Simon Michaux, whom I now regard as one of the most important thinkers in our world. I really can’t exaggerate his importance. He ought to be a household name. Prior to yesterday, I had had only the faintest acquaintance with the man and his ideas. But now it is as if I’ve crossed a bridge and see the world in a whole new light. That new light is characterized by something as near to certainty as I can have about anything. One is almost never 100% certain of anything. It’s good to keep an open mind. But sometimes some things are very, very near to certain. That’s the light in which I’m now viewing the popular narrative on energy transition. That narrative is just plain
Sadly, collapse is extremely likely, indeed, already underway. Not all is lost, because the work of constructing a future ecological civilisation is also underway. It's going to be a very challenging few decades. Many are already perishing, and many more will die in future. We should save as much life as possible, but also be realistic about what is happening, and act accordingly. As James Lovelock said in The Revenge of Gaia, we should get rid of all that is wrong in the current civilisation and preserve all that is good, to help those humans of the future who will construct the new society.
I remember how things were in a "smaller, slower and less energy intensive economy". Which was how things were for me iin England in the 1940s, 50s and the first half of the 1960s. The difference between then and now can be illustrated by the legal requirement that in those days little boys were not allowed to wear long trousers until we were 13 years old. My first job was in 1953, the year sweet rationing ended. Virtually everything we had was essential. Discretionary (non essential) markets, in today's terms, did not exist. The only difference I remember, between families was whether they had gardens in which to grow their own food, for themselves and for exchanging their surpluses with their neighbours.
Thanks James. Excellent post. Grim, but I have to agree with you. As we used to say in XR, "we're fucked" . Collapse. Yes. The question now is not whether this is happening, but what to do.
I'm going to continue to explore "the luxury economy" in future articles and essays soon. There's crucial facet of this story I've not touched upon here. It has to do with prices of things and labor costs and competitiveness in the market economy ... and how technological "improvements" almost force us to use "labor saving devices" to be competitive in market economy ... and how any kind of "transition" away from fossil fuels must mean, at times, thumbing our nose at this dynamic.
I think there is an important element left out of this picture of the past, present and future. You talk about humanity as a whole; but in the past, a small ruling class made most of the decisions and enjoyed the cream of the fruits of others' labor, while contributing little. In the present--same thing only better disguised. But this dynamic will very likely have a huge effect on the transition. The smoothness of the transition depends upon leveling and cooperation--when such a hefty percentage of our surplus is going into luxuries for the rich, and militaries, cops, guards to protect the rich from the poor essentially (the gargantuan US military is for hegemony, but largely that is to ensure the continuation of unequal relations where US corporations can pillage the rest of the world for natural resources and cheap labor.) The difference in the post-peak economy will be that the rich will no longer be able to allow luxuries to trickle down from themselves to the global middle class. They are busy setting up all sorts of surveillance, armed robots and drones, and legal arrangements for a system in which they continue to pillage the third world for resources to maintain a modern lifestyle for themselves, while the middle and lower classes merge into one huge majority class of serfs. I envision prisons used as slave labor camps. THIS dystopian future is what we get if there is no breakdown, no collapse. So a breakdown is what saves us from it--and leads to a world with a zillion local societies of widely varying sorts. To get to the best possible future, in which we downshift smoothly, deliberately, cooperatively and JUSTly, with the richest undergoing the biggest change, and ecosystems protected as much as possible--would require that the masses stop letting the sociopaths dictate to the rest of us, and I just don't see what could enable that.
Energy Transition & the Luxury Economy
"Not everyone is coming to the future
Not everyone is coming from the past
Not everyone can come into the future
Not everyone that's here is gonna last"
Madonna
Sadly, collapse is extremely likely, indeed, already underway. Not all is lost, because the work of constructing a future ecological civilisation is also underway. It's going to be a very challenging few decades. Many are already perishing, and many more will die in future. We should save as much life as possible, but also be realistic about what is happening, and act accordingly. As James Lovelock said in The Revenge of Gaia, we should get rid of all that is wrong in the current civilisation and preserve all that is good, to help those humans of the future who will construct the new society.
James, you are garnering plenty of comments not only here but also at resilience.org. Congratulations! It's great to see thoughtful discussions.
Very good James. It should be posted in Radix.
I remember how things were in a "smaller, slower and less energy intensive economy". Which was how things were for me iin England in the 1940s, 50s and the first half of the 1960s. The difference between then and now can be illustrated by the legal requirement that in those days little boys were not allowed to wear long trousers until we were 13 years old. My first job was in 1953, the year sweet rationing ended. Virtually everything we had was essential. Discretionary (non essential) markets, in today's terms, did not exist. The only difference I remember, between families was whether they had gardens in which to grow their own food, for themselves and for exchanging their surpluses with their neighbours.
Thanks James. Excellent post. Grim, but I have to agree with you. As we used to say in XR, "we're fucked" . Collapse. Yes. The question now is not whether this is happening, but what to do.
Is There Enough Metal to Replace Oil?
BY ROBERT HUNZIKER
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/08/23/is-there-enough-metal-to-replace
I'm going to continue to explore "the luxury economy" in future articles and essays soon. There's crucial facet of this story I've not touched upon here. It has to do with prices of things and labor costs and competitiveness in the market economy ... and how technological "improvements" almost force us to use "labor saving devices" to be competitive in market economy ... and how any kind of "transition" away from fossil fuels must mean, at times, thumbing our nose at this dynamic.
I think there is an important element left out of this picture of the past, present and future. You talk about humanity as a whole; but in the past, a small ruling class made most of the decisions and enjoyed the cream of the fruits of others' labor, while contributing little. In the present--same thing only better disguised. But this dynamic will very likely have a huge effect on the transition. The smoothness of the transition depends upon leveling and cooperation--when such a hefty percentage of our surplus is going into luxuries for the rich, and militaries, cops, guards to protect the rich from the poor essentially (the gargantuan US military is for hegemony, but largely that is to ensure the continuation of unequal relations where US corporations can pillage the rest of the world for natural resources and cheap labor.) The difference in the post-peak economy will be that the rich will no longer be able to allow luxuries to trickle down from themselves to the global middle class. They are busy setting up all sorts of surveillance, armed robots and drones, and legal arrangements for a system in which they continue to pillage the third world for resources to maintain a modern lifestyle for themselves, while the middle and lower classes merge into one huge majority class of serfs. I envision prisons used as slave labor camps. THIS dystopian future is what we get if there is no breakdown, no collapse. So a breakdown is what saves us from it--and leads to a world with a zillion local societies of widely varying sorts. To get to the best possible future, in which we downshift smoothly, deliberately, cooperatively and JUSTly, with the richest undergoing the biggest change, and ecosystems protected as much as possible--would require that the masses stop letting the sociopaths dictate to the rest of us, and I just don't see what could enable that.